In his book The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki looks at the ability of large, disconnected groups to make accurate decisions and predictions.

Group intelligence may be good at telling how many jelly beans are in a jar or remembering the year Nirvana released Nevermind. But how does it perform under conditions of true uncertainty, when the right answer is seemingly unknowable -- because it hasn't happened yet?

The folks behind Predict06 are hoping to answer this question (or to just have fun, or both). The site, which launched this week, is a good example of using game-like metaphors to play with the political moment. It uses a fun and simple concept: ask the community who they think will win the upcoming congressional and gubernatorial elections and chart the results.

The front page offers a glimpse of what party is currently predicted to win the Senate and the House according to Predict06 community and, presumably, independent polls. It also includes a glance at the voting for the two "Hottest Races" in the country and the latest reasons members have given for their votes.

These "reasons" are a lot like comments. Users are prompted to give reasons why they think, for example, Rick Santorum will beat Bob Casey, Jr. in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The reasons for each candidate are shown side-by-side, which makes a quick snapshot of opinions about both candidates. If enough people from either side of the fence weigh in -- as is starting to happen -- this layout will give readers a unique look at the public opinion surrounding each race.

People's reasons can range from the thoughtful to the playful to the antagonistic:

You can cast your own prediction by clicking the "Get Started" button in the top right corner of the screen, below which is a drop-down list of all of the races you can predict. Finally, the "Your Predictions" tab will show you -- your predictions.

According to Surowiecki, for a group to be "smart," i.e., accurate, it needs to be diverse, independent, and decentralized. If the users of Predict06 meet these requirements -- if they come from diverse backgrounds and political persuasions, act independently of each other, and are networked -- we may see some accurate results after the election. In the meantime we can have a little fun.

Tags: congressional races, politics06, wisdom of crowds

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